Soybeans, Corn, and Wheat Futures
Weekly Grain Report
by Mr. Lynn Smith
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2008-11-12
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Soybean Futures
On Monday, November 3rd, 2008, January Soybeans closed at 9.37, up 4 1/2 cents, as bullish export inspections and a lack of farmer selling provided some buying interest, although traders remain cautious going into the election on Tuesday. The USDA reported Beans export inspections totaled49.3 million bushels vs. 41.3 m.b. the week prior and 23.0 m.b. the 4 week average. It was a bullish report and should provide a base of support going into next week’s USDA monthly supply/demand report on Monday, Nov. 10th. Beans traded on both sides of even with a slightly positive lean, but traders were reluctant to enter new long positions with the election uncertainty and the direction of the equity market. After the close, the USDA reported 86 percent of the Bean crop has been harvested, vs. 76 percent the week prior and 90 percent the 10 year average. The report was a little under expectations, given the favorable weather.
Jan. Beans closed 21 1/2 cents higher on Tuesday at 9.59, as a lower U.S. Dollar and strong Crude Oil sparked buying interest. The market slipped a bit after Informa, a private research firm, estimated the Soybean crop at 2.987 billion bushels, which was about 1.7 percent higher than the USDA’s current forecast, on a yield of 40.2 bushels per acre, as compared to the USDA’s projection of 39.5 b.p.a. Profit taking brought the market off the highs at the close, but fund buying still totaled about 3,000 contracts during the session.
On Wednesday, Jan. Beans closed sharply lower at 9.04, down 55 cents, on spillover weakness from Crude Oil and Equities. Also contributing to the sell off were pre-report estimates for a larger Soybean crop in the USDA monthly crop report to be released on Monday. Funds sold an estimated 4,000 contracts during the session.
Jan. Beans gained 2 cents and closed at 9.06 on Thursday, after selling through key support at 9.00 earlier in the session. Prior to the session, the USDA reported Soybean exports totaled 894.6 thousand metric tons, 70 percent from China, vs. 1 457 million metric tons the week prior, which was a marketing year high, and just 6 percent under the four week average. Analysts had expected a range of 600,000 to 1.0 million m.t., so the report was near the higher end of their estimates. Commercial traders bought the lows which lifted prices near the close.
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Mr. Lynn Smith
Lynn Smith is a futures broker and Associated Person (AP) employed by Zaner at their main office in the financial district of Chicago.
Weekly Grain Report has contributed 40 issues.Our users give the newsletter an average rank of 8.6/10 (8 votes)
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