The Stock Index Report by Carley Garner
Stock Index Report
by Carley Garner
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2009-07-02
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July 2nd, 2009
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Stocks slump on jobs data
Equities suffered from low volume and poor economic news on the last trading session before the 4th of July celebration. Rumors of a possible North Korean attack on Hawaii, although not necessarily credible, also worked against the markets.
Our prediction that traders would disappear shortly after the release of non-farm payroll numbers seemed to be relatively accurate. Volume was at a bare minimum in post-announcement trade. The headline numbers weren't a big surprise; an estimated 467,000 jobs were lost last month to bring the unemployment rate to about 9.5%. It is important to note that the so called U-6 number, which includes those that have stopped looking for work or who can't find full-time jobs, has climbed to nearly 16%. Suddenly, the green shoots look a little brown. Nonetheless, most of this was expected well before today and therefore the initial reaction looks to be a bit exaggerated by the lack of market liquidity.
The major indices posted losses of nearly 2% by mid-session, while the Russell was down over 3%. The Russell is comprised of small cap stocks, which are often the market leaders. I wouldn't put too much credence into today's trade in light of the volume situation, but it seems that even if we see an oversold bounce on Monday the overall trend is lower. We think that the next target in the September S&P is the mid-to low 880's. In the case of the Russell, 2000 the mid-480's should be the next target and we expect that the NASDAQ could see the 1420 area again in the near future.
For the most part, the markets will be closed tomorrow in observance of the holiday. With that said, the CME Group Globex stock indices (e-mini S&P, e-mini NASDAQ and e-mini Dow) will trade overnight as usual but the session will be halted at 10:30 am Central.
Enjoy your holiday weekend!
**Seasonality is already be factored into current prices, any references to such does not indicate future market action.
S&P 500 Futures and Options Trading Recommendations
**There is unlimited risk in naked option selling and futures trading
Position Trade -
Flat
Russell Futures and Options Trading Recommendations
**There is unlimited risk in naked option selling and futures trading
Position Trade -
Flat
NASDAQ
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| Meet the Author |
Carley Garner
Senior Analyst and Broker; Stocks and Commodities Magazine columnist; Author of "A Trader's First Book on Commodities" and “Commodity Options” published by FT Press a division of Prentice Hall.
Stock Index Report has contributed 290 issues.
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